Accessing the syndemic of COVID-19 and malaria intervention in Africa

Abstract Background The pandemic of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused substantial disruptions to health services in low and middle-income countries with a high burden other diseases, such as malaria sub-Saharan Africa. aim this study is assess impact COVID-19 on transmission potential malaria-endemic Methods We present data-driven method quantify extent which pandemic, well various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), could lead change 2020. First, we adopt particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo estimate epidemiological parameters each country by fitting time series cumulative number reported cases. Then, simulate epidemic dynamics under two groups NPIs: (1) contact restriction social distancing, (2) early identification isolation Based simulated curves, NPIs distribution insecticide-treated nets (ITNs). Finally, treating total ITNs available 2020, evaluate negative effects based notion vectorial capacity. Results conduct case studies four countries, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Tanzania, Zambia, (i.e., basic reproduction $$R_0$$ R 0 duration infection $$D_I$$ D I ) are estimated follows: Ethiopia ( $$R_0=1.57$$ = 1.57 , $$D_I=5.32$$ 5.32 ), Nigeria $$R_0=2.18$$ 2.18 $$D_I=6.58$$ 6.58 Tanzania $$R_0=2.47$$ 2.47 $$D_I=6.01$$ 6.01 Zambia $$R_0=2.12$$ 2.12 $$D_I=6.96$$ 6.96 ). parameters, curves indicated that earlier implemented, better controlled. Moreover, effect combined than distancing only. By 2020 baseline, our results show even stringent NPIs, will remain higher expected second half Conclusions quantifying NPI response potential, provides way jointly address syndemic between suggest intervention can effectively reduce scale mitigate its potential.